Exponential phase of covid19 expansion is not driven by climate at global scale

Coelho, Marco Tulio Pacheco; Rodrigues, Joao Fabricio Mota; Medina, Anderson Matos; Scalco, Paulo; Terribile, Levi Carina; Vilela, Bruno; Diniz-Filho, Jose Alexandre Felizola; Dobrovolski, Ricardo

The pandemic state of COVID-19 caused by the SARS CoV-2 put the world in quarantine and is causing an unprecedented economic crisis. However, COVID-19 is spreading in different rates at different countries. Here, we tested the effect of three classes of predictors, i.e., socioeconomic, climatic and transport, on the rate of daily increase of COVID-19. We found that global connections, represented by countries importance in the global air transportation network, is the main explanation for the growth rate of COVID-19 in different countries. Climate, geographic distance and socioeconomics did not affect this big picture analysis. Geographic distance and climate were significant barriers in the past but were surpassed by the human engine that allowed us to colonize almost every corner on Earth. Based on our global analysis, the global network of air transportation could lead to a worst-case scenario of synchronous global pandemic if board control measures in international airports were not taken and are not sustained during this pandemic. Despite all limitations of a global analysis, our results indicate that the current claims that the growth rate of COVID-19 may be lower in tropical countries should be taken very carefully, at risk to disturb well-established and effective policy of social isolation that may help to avoid higher mortality rates due to collapse of national health systems. This is the case of Brazil, a well-connected tropical country that presents the second highest increase rate of COVID-19 and might experience a serious case of human-induced disasters if decision makers take into consideration unsupported claims of the growth rate of COVID-19 might be lower in tropical countries.