Author: Qifang Bi; Yongsheng Wu; Shujiang Mei; Chenfei Ye; Xuan Zou; Zhen Zhang; Xiaojian Liu; Lan Wei; Shaun A Truelove; Tong Zhang; Wei Gao; Cong Cheng; Xiujuan Tang; Xiaoliang Wu; Yu Wu; Binbin Sun; Suli Huang; Yu Sun; Juncen Zhang; Ting Ma; Justin Lessler; Teijian Feng
Title: Epidemiology and Transmission of COVID-19 in Shenzhen China: Analysis of 391 cases and 1,286 of their close contacts Document date: 2020_3_4
ID: hnx213kp_39
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.03.20028423 doi: medRxiv preprint 16, 17 ), and assume that R=2.6 and that isolation effectively ends the infectious period. Under these assumptions we find if the mean infectious day is greater than 5 days, then it may be possible to bring R below one in those detected by symptom-based surveillance; and the same can be accomplished by co.....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.03.20028423 doi: medRxiv preprint 16, 17 ), and assume that R=2.6 and that isolation effectively ends the infectious period. Under these assumptions we find if the mean infectious day is greater than 5 days, then it may be possible to bring R below one in those detected by symptom-based surveillance; and the same can be accomplished by contact-based surveillance if the mean infectious day is greater than 3 days. For the impact of passive surveillance alone to achieve our observed R of 0.4, we project the mean infectious day must be at least 5.5 days (and likely more) after symptom onset.
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