Author: Sahamoddin Khailaie; Tanmay Mitra; Arnab Bandyopadhyay; Marta Schips; Pietro Mascheroni; Patrizio Vanella; Berit Lange; Sebastian Binder; Michael Meyer-Hermann
Title: Estimate of the development of the epidemic reproduction number Rt from Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 case data and implications for political measures based on prognostics Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: 0uzma5vr_89
Snippet: Mortality rate is often overestimated during an ongoing outbreak, and it largely depends on the healthcare system. In a setting where the healthcare system is overwhelmed, this will be higher. In an ideal healthcare system where we have enough supply of resources (e.g. ICUs, hospital beds), it can be assumed that patients only die after being admitted in ICUs, and thereby can be estimated using ~ ; where is the overall mortality. The mortality pe.....
Document: Mortality rate is often overestimated during an ongoing outbreak, and it largely depends on the healthcare system. In a setting where the healthcare system is overwhelmed, this will be higher. In an ideal healthcare system where we have enough supply of resources (e.g. ICUs, hospital beds), it can be assumed that patients only die after being admitted in ICUs, and thereby can be estimated using ~ ; where is the overall mortality. The mortality percentage in case studies is largely age dependent , China CDC 2020 and increases with age. This estimation gives 0.77 as the median value, which we note is towards the higher end, but interpretable as many severely ill patients in ICUs may die from the illness. For our analysis, we have varied δ over 0.15 -0.77.
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