Estimate of the development of the epidemic reproduction number Rt from Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 case data and implications for political measures based on prognostics

Sahamoddin Khailaie; Tanmay Mitra; Arnab Bandyopadhyay; Marta Schips; Pietro Mascheroni; Patrizio Vanella; Berit Lange; Sebastian Binder; Michael Meyer-Hermann

Assuming travel restrictions, meaning independence of the different states, and assuming the latest reproduction number Rt kept for a year, Saarland with the highest Rt would experience a scenario of major immunisation of the population with an overwhelmed health care system ( Figure 4 , Saarland, black), while in Hamburg, exhibiting the lowest Rt, the virus would be eliminated within a few months from now ( Figure 4 , Hamburg, black). With more restrictive NPIs in Saarland, viral spreading may be stopped within 3 months of time. Even if implemented today, the model predicts that the number of required ICUs will continue to rise for a few weeks before going down. More restrictive NPIs in Hamburg have the potential to lead to a fast stop of viral spreading on a scale of a few weeks up to two months. Hamburg can tolerate some reduction of NPIs and still control viral spreading, however, on a very long time scale (Figure 4 , Hamburg, magenta). Generally, the model results suggest, similar to whole Germany, that a release of NPIs will lead to an overwhelmed health care system associated with many deaths.