Author: Sahamoddin Khailaie; Tanmay Mitra; Arnab Bandyopadhyay; Marta Schips; Pietro Mascheroni; Patrizio Vanella; Berit Lange; Sebastian Binder; Michael Meyer-Hermann
Title: Estimate of the development of the epidemic reproduction number Rt from Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 case data and implications for political measures based on prognostics Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: 0uzma5vr_73
Snippet: The inverse of R5 depicts the duration for which the hospitalized patients not requiring further intensive care remain under general hospital care before getting discharge. The median value of 1/R5 depends on the age structure of the affected people in a particular region. For example, in the case of Braunschweig, the second largest city in Lower Saxony, where 46.35 % of the population is under the age of 40, the median value of 1/R5 will be bias.....
Document: The inverse of R5 depicts the duration for which the hospitalized patients not requiring further intensive care remain under general hospital care before getting discharge. The median value of 1/R5 depends on the age structure of the affected people in a particular region. For example, in the case of Braunschweig, the second largest city in Lower Saxony, where 46.35 % of the population is under the age of 40, the median value of 1/R5 will be biased towards the value of 1/R5 corresponding to this young group. In a Chinese case study , the median time for the time span of hospitalization is reported to be around 10 days for the mild cases. Although the WHO-China joint mission on COVID-19 outbreak (WHO-China 2020) has reported a median period of 14 days for the hospitalized cases not requiring intensive care treatment, we assumed a period of 10 days to be the median value of 1/R5 for Germany by considering the age-distribution of infected population here. However, we do vary 1/R5 in a wide range of 7 -16 days while performing the analysis.
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