Author: Yasuhiko Kamikubo; Atsushi Takahashi
Title: Epidemiological Tools that Predict Partial Herd Immunity to SARS Coronavirus 2 Document date: 2020_3_27
ID: 7onenxg7_3
Snippet: Flattening the epidemic curve to avoid loss of healthcare capacity is a major global strategy, but has the downside of slowing the achievement of full herd immunity and sacrificing economic activity. Once the herd immunity is completed, the government can confidently decide when to lift the restriction. Therefore, the government must predict trends in the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2. There is no waiting in a pandemic and no time to wait for scientific.....
Document: Flattening the epidemic curve to avoid loss of healthcare capacity is a major global strategy, but has the downside of slowing the achievement of full herd immunity and sacrificing economic activity. Once the herd immunity is completed, the government can confidently decide when to lift the restriction. Therefore, the government must predict trends in the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2. There is no waiting in a pandemic and no time to wait for scientific confirmation. At such times epidemiology exists to determine public health policy first and foremost. Unfortunately, no government knows epidemiological methods for predicting their own SARS-CoV-2 status. Here, we developed the world's first influenza-based epidemiological method as a useful proxy to detect the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the establishment of partial herd immunity in countries.
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