Epidemiology reveals mask wearing by the public is crucial for COVID-19 control

Zeng, Nianyi; Li, Zewen; Ng, Sherrianne; Chen, Dingqiang; Zhou, Hongwei

Abstract Objective The pandemic 2019 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is the greatest concern globally. Here we analyzed the epidemiological features of China, South Korea, Italy and Spain to find out the relationship of major public health events and epidemiological curves. Study design In this study we describe and analyze the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in and outside China. We use GAM to generate the epidemiological curves and simulate infection curves with reported incubation period. Results The epidemiological curved derived from the GAM suggested that the infection curve can reflect the public health measurements sensitively. Under the massive actions token in China, the infection curve flattened at 23rd of January. While surprisingly, even before Wuhan lockdown and first level response of public emergency in Guangdong and Shanghai, those infection curve came to the reflection point both at 21st of January, which indicated the mask wearing by the public before 21st Jan were the key measure to cut off the transmission. In the countries outside China, infection curve also changed in response to measures, but its rate of decline was much smaller than the curve of China's. Conclusion The present analysis comparing the epidemiological curves in China, South Korea, Italy and Spain supports the importance of mask wearing by the public. Analysis of the infection curve helped to clarify the impact of important public health events, evaluate the efficiencies of prevention measures, and showed wearing masks in public resulted in significantly reduced daily infected cases.