Author: Robert Verity; Lucy C Okell; Ilaria Dorigatti; Peter Winskill; Charles Whittaker; Natsuko Imai; Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg; Hayley Thompson; Patrick Walker; Han Fu; Amy Dighe; Jamie Griffin; Anne Cori; Marc Baguelin; Sangeeta Bhatia; Adhiratha Boonyasiri; Zulma M Cucunuba; Rich Fitzjohn; Katy A M Gaythorpe; Will Green; Arran Hamlet; Wes Hinsley; Daniel Laydon; Gemma Nedjati-Gilani; Steven Riley; Sabine van-Elsand; Erik Volz; Haowei Wang; Yuanrong Wang; Xiayoue Xi; Christl Donnelly; Azra Ghani; Neil Ferguson
Title: Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease Document date: 2020_3_13
ID: 10n2u1b1_21
Snippet: During a growing epidemic, a higher proportion of the cases will have been infected recently ( Figure S1 ). We accounted for this by re-parameterising a Gamma model to account for exponential growth using a growth rate of 0.14 per day obtained from the early case onset data (see Supplementary Methods). Using Bayesian methods, we fitted a Gamma distributions to data on times from onset-todeath and onset-to-recovery conditional on having observed .....
Document: During a growing epidemic, a higher proportion of the cases will have been infected recently ( Figure S1 ). We accounted for this by re-parameterising a Gamma model to account for exponential growth using a growth rate of 0.14 per day obtained from the early case onset data (see Supplementary Methods). Using Bayesian methods, we fitted a Gamma distributions to data on times from onset-todeath and onset-to-recovery conditional on having observed the final outcome. Missing onset dates were imputed based on dates of report where available.
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