Author: Robert Verity; Lucy C Okell; Ilaria Dorigatti; Peter Winskill; Charles Whittaker; Natsuko Imai; Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg; Hayley Thompson; Patrick Walker; Han Fu; Amy Dighe; Jamie Griffin; Anne Cori; Marc Baguelin; Sangeeta Bhatia; Adhiratha Boonyasiri; Zulma M Cucunuba; Rich Fitzjohn; Katy A M Gaythorpe; Will Green; Arran Hamlet; Wes Hinsley; Daniel Laydon; Gemma Nedjati-Gilani; Steven Riley; Sabine van-Elsand; Erik Volz; Haowei Wang; Yuanrong Wang; Xiayoue Xi; Christl Donnelly; Azra Ghani; Neil Ferguson
Title: Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease Document date: 2020_3_13
ID: 10n2u1b1_61
Snippet: China. Cases and deaths are aggregate numbers reported from 1 st January to 11 th February 2020 8 . The crude CFR is calculated as deaths/laboratoryconfirmed cases. Our estimates also include clinically diagnosed cases (a scaling of 1.31 applied across all age-groups as the breakdown by age was not reported) which gives a larger denominator and hence lower CFR. The clinically-confirmed cases were not reported by age. The adjusted CFR accounts for.....
Document: China. Cases and deaths are aggregate numbers reported from 1 st January to 11 th February 2020 8 . The crude CFR is calculated as deaths/laboratoryconfirmed cases. Our estimates also include clinically diagnosed cases (a scaling of 1.31 applied across all age-groups as the breakdown by age was not reported) which gives a larger denominator and hence lower CFR. The clinically-confirmed cases were not reported by age. The adjusted CFR accounts for the underlying demography in Wuhan/elsewhere in China and corrects for under-ascertainment as in Figure 3 . The IFR is obtained by combining estimates of the CFR with information on infection prevalence obtained from those returning home on repatriation flights. Figure. Non-parametric estimates are obtained using a modified Kaplan-Meier method 11, 25 . For both sets of estimates, missing onset dates were multiply imputed using information on the onset-to-report distribution. Note that due to missing data on age and travel status, numbers in the stratified analysis are lower than for the overall analysis. In addition, the parametric method requires a correction for the epidemic growthrate. The parametric estimates were therefore obtained from the subset of data for which the travel/local transmission and age was known. These samples sizes are shown in brackets.
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