The long-run heterogeneous effects of a cholera pandemic on stature: Evidence from industrializing Japan.

Ogasawara, Kota; Inoue, Tatsuki

The recent COVID-19 pandemic poses the general question on how infectious diseases can persistently affect human health. A growing body of literature has found a significant amount of evidence on the long-term adverse effects of infectious diseases, such as influenza, typhoid fever, and yellow fever. However, we must be careful about the fact that little is known about the long-term consequences of the acute diarrheal disease pandemic cholera - Vibrio cholerae bacillus - which still threatens the health of the population in many developing countries. To bridge this gap in the body of knowledge, we utilized unique census-based data on army height at age 20 in early 20th-century Japan, with a difference-in-differences estimation strategy using regional variation in the intensity of cholera pandemics. We found that early-life exposure to a cholera pandemic had heterogeneous stunting effects on the final height of men; the magnitude of the stunting effects increased as the intensity of exposure increased.