Estimating cost-benefit of quarantine length for Covid-19 mitigation

Andreas Eilersen; Kim Sneppen

In the following, we will investigate two closely related questions. First, how a lockdown is most effectively implemented, and second, how society is subsequently reopened safely, and yet as fast as possible. To answer the first, we must examine the relative effects of reducing the amount of contacts in the workplace, in public spaces, and in closely connected groups of friends. For the second question, we will look for viable strategies for mitigation that do not require a total lockdown. Here, we will especially focus on the testing efficiency, contact tracing 11 , and improved hygiene. Our results will hopefully be helpful in Figure 1 . A diagram of the model structure. Each agent has a network consisting of a family, a workplace and two groups of friends. The family accounts for 40 % of interactions. Work accounts for 30 % and socialisation with friends accounts for a further 15 %. These contacts in each of these 3 groups are fixed throughout the simulation. Finally, 15 % of interactions happen "in public", which we implement as an interaction with a randomly chosen other agent. Everyone in the work and friend sub-graphs are assumed to be connected to each other. Below the graph, the underlying mechanisms of the disease are shown. We divide the exposed state into four in order to get a more naturalistic distribution of incubation periods. In our simulation we set the family groups to 2, the work network to 10 completely interconnected people and the friend network consist of 2 groups with 5 in each. The distribution of incubation times is shown on the right.