Author: Glenn F Webb; Pierre Magal; Zhihua Liu; Ousmane Seydi
Title: A model to predict COVID-19 epidemics with applications to South Korea, Italy, and Spain Document date: 2020_4_10
ID: c95lntyp_50
Snippet: Our model incorporates government and social distancing measures, through the time-dependent transmission rate Ï„ . It is evident that these measures should start as early as possible, and should be as strong as possible. If the epidemic subsides substantially due to these measures, the example of South Korea shows that a background level of daily cases may persist for an extended time. If major distancing measures are reduced too early or too ex.....
Document: Our model incorporates government and social distancing measures, through the time-dependent transmission rate Ï„ . It is evident that these measures should start as early as possible, and should be as strong as possible. If the epidemic subsides substantially due to these measures, the example of South Korea shows that a background level of daily cases may persist for an extended time. If major distancing measures are reduced too early or too extensively, the epidemic may return to new Phase II, with exponentially increasing cumulative cases. A possible control of COVID-19 epidemics is evidenced by the example of South Korea. The future of COVID-19 epidemics and their human toll is at present uncertain, and it is hopeful that mathematical models can be of use.
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