Author: Sahamoddin Khailaie; Tanmay Mitra; Arnab Bandyopadhyay; Marta Schips; Pietro Mascheroni; Patrizio Vanella; Berit Lange; Sebastian Binder; Michael Meyer-Hermann
Title: Estimate of the development of the epidemic reproduction number Rt from Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 case data and implications for political measures based on prognostics Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: 0uzma5vr_80
Snippet: The inverse of R9 is primarily the duration for which the asymptomatic infected individuals remain infectious following their latent non-infectious period. As these individuals do not show symptoms, we assume that they remain infectious for a shorter time as compared to those who develop even milder symptoms. From the aforementioned discussion, we note that the cases with mild symptoms remain infectious for a period of (1/R3 + 1/R4). Hence, our a.....
Document: The inverse of R9 is primarily the duration for which the asymptomatic infected individuals remain infectious following their latent non-infectious period. As these individuals do not show symptoms, we assume that they remain infectious for a shorter time as compared to those who develop even milder symptoms. From the aforementioned discussion, we note that the cases with mild symptoms remain infectious for a period of (1/R3 + 1/R4). Hence, our assumption restricts 1/R9 < 1/R3 + 1/R4. If we further assume that asymptomatic people are following a similar trajectory as the people with mild symptoms, and randomly become non-infectious during the whole duration of 1/R4, this results in a median value of 1/R9 ~ 1/R3 + ½*R4, which is about 6.2 days. We use the same formulation while varying R3 and R4 in ranges as described above.
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