Estimate of Covid-19 prevalence using imperfect data

Witold R Rudnicki; Radoslaw Piliszek

This assumption is certainly an oversimplification, since it is already known that the mortality varies very strongly between age groups and therefore the true mortality in a given country depends on the population structure. What is more, the mortality depends on the capacity of the healthcare system in the country to provide the appropriate treatment to patients. This capacity may depend also on the state of the epidemic, and resources available to build the adequate temporary infrastructure etc. Another factor in variability in mortality can be attributed to differences in social behaviour -e.g. how prevalent are multi-generational households, the frequencies and intensity of social contacts, in particular between younger and older generations etc. The number of factors contributing to the true mortality is so large that it is impossible to account for them within the time-frame of the study. Therefore, all these factors are omitted and left to the country-based adjustment which can be done externally.