Estimate of the development of the epidemic reproduction number Rt from Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 case data and implications for political measures based on prognostics

Sahamoddin Khailaie; Tanmay Mitra; Arnab Bandyopadhyay; Marta Schips; Pietro Mascheroni; Patrizio Vanella; Berit Lange; Sebastian Binder; Michael Meyer-Hermann

Based on a classical model of infection epidemics, we developed a mathematical model particularly adapted to the requirements and specificities of the CoV-outbreak (SECIR-model, Figure 1 ). Figure 1 : The scheme of the SECIR model, which distinguishes susceptible (S), healthy individuals without immune memory of CoV, exposed (E), who already carry the virus but are not yet infectious to others, carriers (C), who carry the virus and are infectious to others but do not yet show symptoms, infected (I), who carry the virus with symptoms and are infectious to others, hospitalized (H), who experience a severe development of the disease, transferred to intensive care unit (U), dead (D), and recovered (R), who acquired immune memory and cannot be infected again. See Table 1 for parameter values.