Author: Chi Heem Wong; Kien Wei Siah; Andrew W Lo
Title: Estimating Probabilities of Success of Clinical Trials for Vaccines and Other Anti-Infective Therapeutics Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: fnrm6a79_2
Snippet: (2020) employed 10 to 25 data points per estimated value from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate the PoS of vaccines for neglected diseases, and DiMasi et al. (2020) reported PoS estimates on a per-drug basis using 2,575 trials for diseases of interest to the Gates Foundation. In contrast, we employ a much larger and broader dataset of 16,328 unique clinical trials to estimate the PoS of vaccines and non-vaccine therapeutics target.....
Document: (2020) employed 10 to 25 data points per estimated value from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to estimate the PoS of vaccines for neglected diseases, and DiMasi et al. (2020) reported PoS estimates on a per-drug basis using 2,575 trials for diseases of interest to the Gates Foundation. In contrast, we employ a much larger and broader dataset of 16,328 unique clinical trials to estimate the PoS of vaccines and non-vaccine therapeutics targeting 29 different infectious diseases using all available drug/indication pairs-a methodology that has been argued to be more relevant for evaluating drug development R&D risk and productivity (Hay et al., 2014; Thomas et al., 2016; Wong et al., 2019b) .
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