Author: Sahamoddin Khailaie; Tanmay Mitra; Arnab Bandyopadhyay; Marta Schips; Pietro Mascheroni; Patrizio Vanella; Berit Lange; Sebastian Binder; Michael Meyer-Hermann
Title: Estimate of the development of the epidemic reproduction number Rt from Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 case data and implications for political measures based on prognostics Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: 0uzma5vr_31
Snippet: A more thorough and careful analysis of the results reveals that the reproduction number is still in a phase of reduction. While we would expect it to saturate on an unknown level given the currently implemented NPIs, these appear to have turned out to be effective and continue to improve the situation. Likely, this is due to the inertia in the awareness of the population, only slowly adapting responsible behaviour. We strongly recommend to keep .....
Document: A more thorough and careful analysis of the results reveals that the reproduction number is still in a phase of reduction. While we would expect it to saturate on an unknown level given the currently implemented NPIs, these appear to have turned out to be effective and continue to improve the situation. Likely, this is due to the inertia in the awareness of the population, only slowly adapting responsible behaviour. We strongly recommend to keep the NPIs in place and to re-evaluate the reproduction number over time in order to generate better predictions for the future, in particular, regarding the time period the NPIs have to be kept in order to stop viral spreading.
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