Author: Sahamoddin Khailaie; Tanmay Mitra; Arnab Bandyopadhyay; Marta Schips; Pietro Mascheroni; Patrizio Vanella; Berit Lange; Sebastian Binder; Michael Meyer-Hermann
Title: Estimate of the development of the epidemic reproduction number Rt from Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 case data and implications for political measures based on prognostics Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: 0uzma5vr_9
Snippet: The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10. 1101 possibly related to people coming back from holiday. This leads to an overshoot of the Rt value in a strength depending on the size of the time window used for analysis. Later on, the nationwide NPIs imposed in Germany included the recommendation of self-isolation issued on March 6th, 2020, followed by encouraged social distancing by the chancellor Angela Merkel on March 12th, 2020.....
Document: The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10. 1101 possibly related to people coming back from holiday. This leads to an overshoot of the Rt value in a strength depending on the size of the time window used for analysis. Later on, the nationwide NPIs imposed in Germany included the recommendation of self-isolation issued on March 6th, 2020, followed by encouraged social distancing by the chancellor Angela Merkel on March 12th, 2020. Then nationwide school closures on March 14th, 2020 and restrictions on public events followed on March 22nd, 2020. The timing of these NPIs suggests that they are responsible for the observed reduction of the reproductive number Rt. From there on, the reproduction number went continuously down to a value near 1 as of April 3rd. This illustrates that the NPIs imposed appear to have had a strong effect on the dynamics of the CoVepidemic.
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