Selected article for: "age group and current estimate"
Author: Robert Verity; Lucy C Okell; Ilaria Dorigatti; Peter Winskill; Charles Whittaker; Natsuko Imai; Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg; Hayley Thompson; Patrick Walker; Han Fu; Amy Dighe; Jamie Griffin; Anne Cori; Marc Baguelin; Sangeeta Bhatia; Adhiratha Boonyasiri; Zulma M Cucunuba; Rich Fitzjohn; Katy A M Gaythorpe; Will Green; Arran Hamlet; Wes Hinsley; Daniel Laydon; Gemma Nedjati-Gilani; Steven Riley; Sabine van-Elsand; Erik Volz; Haowei Wang; Yuanrong Wang; Xiayoue Xi; Christl Donnelly; Azra Ghani; Neil Ferguson
Title: Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease
  • Document date: 2020_3_13
    • ID: 10n2u1b1_37
    Snippet: We estimated a prevalence of infection in international Wuhan residents repatriated on 6 flights of 0.87% (6/689, 95% CI 0.32%-1.9%). Adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, we estimate an IFR of 0.66% (95% crI 0.39-1.33%). As for the CFR, this is strongly age-dependent with estimates rising steeply from age 50 upwards (Table 1 ). The demography-and under-ascertainment adjusted proportion of infections requiring hospitalisation ranges f.....
    Document: We estimated a prevalence of infection in international Wuhan residents repatriated on 6 flights of 0.87% (6/689, 95% CI 0.32%-1.9%). Adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, we estimate an IFR of 0.66% (95% crI 0.39-1.33%). As for the CFR, this is strongly age-dependent with estimates rising steeply from age 50 upwards (Table 1 ). The demography-and under-ascertainment adjusted proportion of infections requiring hospitalisation ranges from 1.1% in the 20-29 age-group up to 18.4% in the 80+ age-group (Table 3) . Using these age-stratified IFR estimates, we estimate the IFR in the Diamond Princess population to be 2.9%. Given the delay from onset of symptoms to death, we would expect 56% of these deaths to have occurred by 5 th March 2020 giving an estimate of the current IFR of 1.6% compared to the empirical estimate of 1.0% (7/706, 95% CI 0.4-2.0%).

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