Author: Witold R Rudnicki; Radoslaw Piliszek
Title: Estimate of Covid-19 prevalence using imperfect data Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: bbzmu37q_4
Snippet: Therefore, one can use the official death count and the estimate of mortality to imply the number of cases. Unfortunately, the estimates of the mortality are highly variable and depend on the applied methodology [5, 6, 7, 8] as well as true fraction of asymptotic cases. The fraction of asymptomatic infections in COVID-19 has been estimated to be less than 20% using Diamond Princess data [9] . It has been also implicitly estimated using epidemics .....
Document: Therefore, one can use the official death count and the estimate of mortality to imply the number of cases. Unfortunately, the estimates of the mortality are highly variable and depend on the applied methodology [5, 6, 7, 8] as well as true fraction of asymptotic cases. The fraction of asymptomatic infections in COVID-19 has been estimated to be less than 20% using Diamond Princess data [9] . It has been also implicitly estimated using epidemics modelling to be more than 90% [10] . It is also known, that mortality varies strongly with age, comorbidity, and the ability of a healthcare system to cope with the epidemic [11, 12] . An additional problem for applying the mortality estimates from the countries in different phase of the epidemic, is that the distribution of times between onset of symptoms and death is known very imprecisely.
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