Well-aerated Lung on Admitting Chest CT to Predict Adverse Outcome in COVID-19 Pneumonia

Colombi, Davide; Bodini, Flavio C.; Petrini, Marcello; Maffi, Gabriele; Morelli, Nicola; Milanese, Gianluca; Silva, Mario; Sverzellati, Nicola; Michieletti, Emanuele

BACKGROUND: Computed tomography (CT) of patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) disease depicts the extent of lung involvement in COVID-19 pneumonia. PURPOSE: The aim of the study was to determine the value of quantification of the well-aerated lung obtained at baseline chest CT for determining prognosis in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients who underwent chest CT suspected for COVID-19 pneumonia at the emergency department admission between February 17 to March 10, 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients with negative reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for SARS-CoV-2 in nasal-pharyngeal swabs, negative chest CT, and incomplete clinical data were excluded. CT was analyzed for quantification of well aerated lung visually (%V-WAL) and by open-source software (%S-WAL and absolute volume, VOL-WAL). Clinical parameters included demographics, comorbidities, symptoms and symptom duration, oxygen saturation and laboratory values. Logistic regression was used to evaluate relationship between clinical parameters and CT metrics versus patient outcome (ICU admission/death vs. no ICU admission/ death). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was calculated to determine model performance. RESULTS: The study included 236 patients (females 59/123, 25%; median age, 68 years). A %V-WAL<73% (OR, 5.4; 95% CI, 2.7-10.8; P<0.001), %S-WAL<71% (OR, 3.8; 95% CI, 1.9-7.5; P<0.001), and VOL-WAL<2.9 L (OR, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.2-5.8; P<0.01) were predictors of ICU admission/death. In comparison with clinical model containing only clinical parameters (AUC, 0.83), all three quantitative models showed higher diagnostic performance (AUC 0.86 for all models). The models containing %V-WAL<73% and VOL-WAL<2.9L were superior in terms of performance as compared to the models containing only clinical parameters (P=0.04 for both models). CONCLUSION: In patients with confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia, visual or software quantification the extent of CT lung abnormality were predictors of ICU admission or death.