The Dynamics, Causes and Possible Prevention of Hepatitis E Outbreaks

Nannyonga, Betty; Sumpter, David J. T.; Mugisha, Joseph Y. T.; Luboobi, Livingstone S.

Rapidly spreading infectious diseases are a serious risk to public health. The dynamics and the factors causing outbreaks of these diseases can be better understood using mathematical models, which are fit to data. Here we investigate the dynamics of a Hepatitis E outbreak in the Kitgum region of northern Uganda during 2007 to 2009. First, we use the data to determine that [Image: see text] is approximately 2.25 for the outbreak. Secondly, we use a model to estimate that the critical level of latrine and bore hole coverages needed to eradicate the epidemic is at least [Image: see text] and [Image: see text] respectively. Lastly, we further investigate the relationship between the co-infection factor for malaria and Hepatitis E on the value of [Image: see text] for Hepatitis E. Taken together, these results provide us with a better understanding of the dynamics and possible causes of Hepatitis E outbreaks.