Estimate of the development of the epidemic reproduction number Rt from Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 case data and implications for political measures based on prognostics

Sahamoddin Khailaie; Tanmay Mitra; Arnab Bandyopadhyay; Marta Schips; Pietro Mascheroni; Patrizio Vanella; Berit Lange; Sebastian Binder; Michael Meyer-Hermann

Contributions: TM & MMH developed the SECIR model; SK coded the simulation and automatic analysis of daily incoming data; SK, TM, SB & MMH organized simulation analysis and evaluation; TM derived the literature-based parameter set; MS & AB fitted the Italy data and derived the parameter set from the variation in different regions of Italy; PM derived the formula for the reproduction number and contributed to quality assessment of the code; PV provided the data for the analysis; BL supported data acquisition and analysis; SB organised the public repository; MMH supervised the study and wrote the paper; ALL revised the paper.