Author: Robert Verity; Lucy C Okell; Ilaria Dorigatti; Peter Winskill; Charles Whittaker; Natsuko Imai; Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg; Hayley Thompson; Patrick Walker; Han Fu; Amy Dighe; Jamie Griffin; Anne Cori; Marc Baguelin; Sangeeta Bhatia; Adhiratha Boonyasiri; Zulma M Cucunuba; Rich Fitzjohn; Katy A M Gaythorpe; Will Green; Arran Hamlet; Wes Hinsley; Daniel Laydon; Gemma Nedjati-Gilani; Steven Riley; Sabine van-Elsand; Erik Volz; Haowei Wang; Yuanrong Wang; Xiayoue Xi; Christl Donnelly; Azra Ghani; Neil Ferguson
Title: Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease Document date: 2020_3_13
ID: 10n2u1b1_44
Snippet: Much of the information informing any global estimate of the CFR at the current time is from the early outbreak in Wuhan, China. Given that the health system in this city was quickly over-whelmed, our estimates suggest that there is substantial under-ascertainment of cases in the younger age-groups (who we estimate to have milder disease) in comparison to elsewhere in mainland China. This underascertainment is the main factor driving the differen.....
Document: Much of the information informing any global estimate of the CFR at the current time is from the early outbreak in Wuhan, China. Given that the health system in this city was quickly over-whelmed, our estimates suggest that there is substantial under-ascertainment of cases in the younger age-groups (who we estimate to have milder disease) in comparison to elsewhere in mainland China. This underascertainment is the main factor driving the difference between our estimate of the crude CFR from China (3.67%) and our best estimate of the overall CFR (1.4%). Furthermore, the CFR is likely to be strongly influenced by the availability of healthcare. Whilst in Wuhan this was stretched, our estimates from international cases are of a similar magnitude, suggesting relatively little difference in health outcome. Finally, as clinical knowledge of this new disease accrues, it is possible that outcomes will improve. It will therefore be important to revise these estimates as epidemics unfold.
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