Author: Robert Verity; Lucy C Okell; Ilaria Dorigatti; Peter Winskill; Charles Whittaker; Natsuko Imai; Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg; Hayley Thompson; Patrick Walker; Han Fu; Amy Dighe; Jamie Griffin; Anne Cori; Marc Baguelin; Sangeeta Bhatia; Adhiratha Boonyasiri; Zulma M Cucunuba; Rich Fitzjohn; Katy A M Gaythorpe; Will Green; Arran Hamlet; Wes Hinsley; Daniel Laydon; Gemma Nedjati-Gilani; Steven Riley; Sabine van-Elsand; Erik Volz; Haowei Wang; Yuanrong Wang; Xiayoue Xi; Christl Donnelly; Azra Ghani; Neil Ferguson
Title: Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease Document date: 2020_3_13
ID: 10n2u1b1_93
Snippet: The figure below illustrates the requirement for the adjustment for epidemic growth for these onsetto-outcome distributions. We simulated a growing epidemic up to day 60 (number of cases on day 1 = 2, growth rate=0.14, doubling time 5 days). The simulated onset-to-outcome distribution if everyone had been followed up until their outcome was observed is shown by the black bars whilst the onsetto-outcome distribution observed at day 60, censoring t.....
Document: The figure below illustrates the requirement for the adjustment for epidemic growth for these onsetto-outcome distributions. We simulated a growing epidemic up to day 60 (number of cases on day 1 = 2, growth rate=0.14, doubling time 5 days). The simulated onset-to-outcome distribution if everyone had been followed up until their outcome was observed is shown by the black bars whilst the onsetto-outcome distribution observed at day 60, censoring those whose outcome is not yet observed is shown by the red bars. The uncorrected Gamma distribution fitted to the observed outcome times at day 60 is shown in red and the Gamma distribution fitted to the observed outcome times at day 60, corrected for epidemic growth, is shown in blue. The latter recovers the true distribution whilst the uncorrected fit results in distribution that is biased towards shorter durations.
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- case number and epidemic growth: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
- case number and Gamma distribution: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
- case number and grow epidemic: 1, 2
- case number and outcome onset: 1
- case number and outcome time: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
- doubling time and epidemic growth: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
- doubling time and fit result: 1
- doubling time and Gamma distribution: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
- doubling time and grow epidemic: 1, 2, 3
- epidemic growth and fit result: 1
- epidemic growth and Gamma distribution: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
- epidemic growth and grow epidemic: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
- epidemic growth and outcome onset: 1
- epidemic growth and outcome time: 1
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date