Estimating SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and epidemiological parameters with uncertainty from serological surveys

Daniel B Larremore; Bailey K Fosdick; Kate M Bubar; Sam Zhang; Stephen M Kissler; C. Jessica E. Metcalf; Caroline Buckee; Yonatan Grad

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint Figure S6 : Credible interval coverage for R eff estimates using four sampling strategies and four serological test kits. Credible interval coverage, defined as the fraction of posterior credible intervals that covered the true parameter used to generate the data, are shown for four sampling strategies (columns, colors) and four test kits (rows), with sensitivity and specificity values as indicated; see legends. Each point represents the fraction of credible intervals which covered the planted value for the indicated overall seroprevalence value (see annotations on plots) at the specified number of serological samples n, out of a total of 250 independent trials. The estimated coverage from a perfectly calibrated posterior will have coverage fractions within 0.9±0.37 (grey bands) 95% of the time. Some seroprevalence values are plotted in black simply to guide the eye. The MDI strategy shown was designed to optimize estimation of R eff . S15 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.