Selected article for: "binomial likelihood and death onset"
Author: Robert Verity; Lucy C Okell; Ilaria Dorigatti; Peter Winskill; Charles Whittaker; Natsuko Imai; Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg; Hayley Thompson; Patrick Walker; Han Fu; Amy Dighe; Jamie Griffin; Anne Cori; Marc Baguelin; Sangeeta Bhatia; Adhiratha Boonyasiri; Zulma M Cucunuba; Rich Fitzjohn; Katy A M Gaythorpe; Will Green; Arran Hamlet; Wes Hinsley; Daniel Laydon; Gemma Nedjati-Gilani; Steven Riley; Sabine van-Elsand; Erik Volz; Haowei Wang; Yuanrong Wang; Xiayoue Xi; Christl Donnelly; Azra Ghani; Neil Ferguson
Title: Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease
  • Document date: 2020_3_13
    • ID: 10n2u1b1_25
    Snippet: To estimate the IFR we additionally fitted to data on infection prevalence from international Wuhan residents that were repatriated to their home countries. This is formulated as an additional Binomial likelihood, incorporating a translation from incidence to period prevalence accounting for epidemic growth over this period. Our age-stratified CFR and IFR model was then jointly fitted to the case data and infection prevalence data using Bayesian .....
    Document: To estimate the IFR we additionally fitted to data on infection prevalence from international Wuhan residents that were repatriated to their home countries. This is formulated as an additional Binomial likelihood, incorporating a translation from incidence to period prevalence accounting for epidemic growth over this period. Our age-stratified CFR and IFR model was then jointly fitted to the case data and infection prevalence data using Bayesian methods. We used our estimates of the onset-to-death distribution obtained from fitting to the 24 deaths in China as a prior distribution. Full mathematical details are given in the Supplementary Information.

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