Author: Robert Verity; Lucy C Okell; Ilaria Dorigatti; Peter Winskill; Charles Whittaker; Natsuko Imai; Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg; Hayley Thompson; Patrick Walker; Han Fu; Amy Dighe; Jamie Griffin; Anne Cori; Marc Baguelin; Sangeeta Bhatia; Adhiratha Boonyasiri; Zulma M Cucunuba; Rich Fitzjohn; Katy A M Gaythorpe; Will Green; Arran Hamlet; Wes Hinsley; Daniel Laydon; Gemma Nedjati-Gilani; Steven Riley; Sabine van-Elsand; Erik Volz; Haowei Wang; Yuanrong Wang; Xiayoue Xi; Christl Donnelly; Azra Ghani; Neil Ferguson
Title: Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease Document date: 2020_3_13
ID: 10n2u1b1_23
Snippet: To estimate the CFR using aggregated data we used our estimates of the distribution of times from onset-to-death to project the expected cumulative number of deaths given the onsets observed in Wuhan and outside Wuhan. We began by assuming that the attack rate is uniform across age-groups (i.e. all ages are equally susceptible). Using the age-distribution of the population, for a given attack rate, we therefore obtained an estimate of the expecte.....
Document: To estimate the CFR using aggregated data we used our estimates of the distribution of times from onset-to-death to project the expected cumulative number of deaths given the onsets observed in Wuhan and outside Wuhan. We began by assuming that the attack rate is uniform across age-groups (i.e. all ages are equally susceptible). Using the age-distribution of the population, for a given attack rate, we therefore obtained an estimate of the expected infections in each age-group. Underascertainment was then estimated inside and outside Wuhan by comparing observed cases by age to this expected distribution assuming perfect ascertainment in the 50-59 age-group. For Wuhan, we added an additional scaling (fitted using a Binomial likelihood) to account for further underascertainment compared to outside Wuhan (given the over-stretched health system). These steps gave us the expected age-distribution of cases.
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