Author: James H Stock; Karl M Aspelund; Michael Droste; Christopher D Walker
Title: Estimates of the Undetected Rate among the SARS-CoV-2 Infected using Testing Data from Iceland Document date: 2020_4_11
ID: lysrwv2f_29
Snippet: One threat to the validity of these estimates is that they assume that the deCODE testing of the asymptomatic is a reliable estimate of the rate of infection among the asymptomatic in the Icelandic population. Because deCODE test recipients did not meet the quarantine requirements (returning from high-risk countries or close contact with a confirmed COVID-19 individual), this assumption seems plausible; it cannot be evaluated with existing data, .....
Document: One threat to the validity of these estimates is that they assume that the deCODE testing of the asymptomatic is a reliable estimate of the rate of infection among the asymptomatic in the Icelandic population. Because deCODE test recipients did not meet the quarantine requirements (returning from high-risk countries or close contact with a confirmed COVID-19 individual), this assumption seems plausible; it cannot be evaluated with existing data, however. Data to provide unbiased estimates of the undetected rate, and the overall rate of infection in the population, need to come from random testing. Such trials are commencing in Iceland, Germany, and Norway. If a random testing design excludes those eligible for tests under medically-based guidelines and/or those in quarantine, the combined data sets could be analyzed using the methods laid out here. 5 Only in Icelandic: https://www.landlaeknir.is/servlet/file/store93/item32967/influensulik.einkenni.uppfaersla.a.vef. okt2017.AG.xls_%C3%A1n%20myndar%20og%20aldursdreifingu.xls . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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