Selected restrictions in specific places are better policy responses than full lockdown

Coccia, Mario

The goal of this study is a comparative analysis of the first and second wave of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to assess the impact on health of people for designing effective policy responses to constrain negative effects of future infectious diseases similar to COVID-19 in society. The research here focuses on a case study of Italy, one of the first countries to experience a rapid increase in numbers of COVID-19 related infected individuals and deaths. Statistical analyses, based on daily data from February 2020 to February 2021, suggest that the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy had a high negative impact on health of people over February-May 2020 that declined from June 2020 onwards. Second wave of COVID-19 pandemic started in August 2020, to February 2021, has a growing incidence of confirmed cases, whereas admissions to Intensive Care Units and total deaths have lower levels compared to first wave. Lessons learned from a comparative analysis between first and second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic can be generalized in similar geo-economic regions to support effective policy responses of crisis management to constrain the impact of recurring waves of COVID-19 pandemic and future infectious diseases on health of people.