Author: Robert Verity; Lucy C Okell; Ilaria Dorigatti; Peter Winskill; Charles Whittaker; Natsuko Imai; Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg; Hayley Thompson; Patrick Walker; Han Fu; Amy Dighe; Jamie Griffin; Anne Cori; Marc Baguelin; Sangeeta Bhatia; Adhiratha Boonyasiri; Zulma M Cucunuba; Rich Fitzjohn; Katy A M Gaythorpe; Will Green; Arran Hamlet; Wes Hinsley; Daniel Laydon; Gemma Nedjati-Gilani; Steven Riley; Sabine van-Elsand; Erik Volz; Haowei Wang; Yuanrong Wang; Xiayoue Xi; Christl Donnelly; Azra Ghani; Neil Ferguson
Title: Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease Document date: 2020_3_13
ID: 10n2u1b1_97
Snippet: Assuming homogeneous attack rates across the different age groups, the demographic distribution of cases by age across each location should broadly match the demography of the populations in Wuhan and across the rest of China. The reported age-distribution of cases for both locations show striking deviations from the demographic structure of the Chinese populations. Wuhan, in particular, has noticeably fewer cases in younger age groups, and signi.....
Document: Assuming homogeneous attack rates across the different age groups, the demographic distribution of cases by age across each location should broadly match the demography of the populations in Wuhan and across the rest of China. The reported age-distribution of cases for both locations show striking deviations from the demographic structure of the Chinese populations. Wuhan, in particular, has noticeably fewer cases in younger age groups, and significant overrepresentation of older age-groups (see Figure 1B in main text). Similar patterns are evident in the age-distribution of cases outside China, but to a lesser extent. We hypothesised that these disparities were a product of under-ascertainment of cases, particularly in younger age-groups where a smaller proportion of infections would be expected to be severe and require hospitalisation.
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