Estimating cost-benefit of quarantine length for Covid-19 mitigation

Andreas Eilersen; Kim Sneppen

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.09.20059790 doi: medRxiv preprint (a) (b) Figure 2 . (a) Comparison of various strategies with and without a reduction in transmission probability per encounter. It can be seen that work and social contacts play roughly the same part in disease transmission. A reduction of infection probability makes the strategies relatively more effective. Reducing work contacts, for example, reduces the peak height by roughly 20 % (relative to no intervention) if infection probability is high. If the infection probability is lowered, the strategy causes a 36 % decrease in peak height (relative to only reducing infection probability). (b) A similar comparison of the effects of reducing workplace sizes by half. This strategy is also relatively more effective if infection probability is reduced. The strategy reduces peak height by 28 % at a lowered infection probability versus only 12 % if infection probability remains high.