Estimating excess 1- year mortality from COVID-19 according to underlying conditions and age in England: a rapid analysis using NHS health records in 3.8 million adults

Amitava Banerjee; Laura Pasea; Steve Harris; Arturo Gonzalez-Izquierdo; Ana Torralbo; Laura Shallcross; Mahdad Noursadeghi; Deenan Pillay; Christina Pagel; Wai Keong Wong; Claudia Langenberg; Bryan Williams; Spiros Denaxas; Harry Hemingway

We estimated the prevalence of each underlying condition and used Kaplan-Meier estimates of 1 year all-cause mortality in the English health records sample. We used the KM estimates in each age and number of conditions cell to estimate the number of excess deaths by age bands, and number of underlying conditions. We then modelled the excess mortality from COVID-19 for relative mortality risk associated with COVID-19 (relative risk, RR) of 1.2, 1.5 and 2.0 (25, 26) , at the following infection rates in the UK population: "fully suppress" (0.0001%), "partially suppress" (1%), "mitigate" (20%) or "do nothing" (80%) (2, 27) . In order to project the study estimates of excess deaths to the whole UK population, we used 2018 estimates of overall population size and mortality(28). For illustration, we applied our study estimates to United Nations Population Fund(29) estimates of population size in other countries. All analyses were performed using R (version 3.4.3).