Author: Rajesh Ranjan
Title: Estimating the Final Epidemic Size for COVID-19 Outbreak using Improved Epidemiological Models Document date: 2020_4_16
ID: emyuny1a_13
Snippet: Modeling of an epidemic during its progress is very challenging as the parameters such as transmission rate, basic reproduction number etc. are not known. Values of these parameters are different for different geographical regions and depend on many social and environmental factors. Thus, understanding from the data from China, where the epidemiology is more established, cannot be directly translated to predict the epidemic size in other countrie.....
Document: Modeling of an epidemic during its progress is very challenging as the parameters such as transmission rate, basic reproduction number etc. are not known. Values of these parameters are different for different geographical regions and depend on many social and environmental factors. Thus, understanding from the data from China, where the epidemiology is more established, cannot be directly translated to predict the epidemic size in other countries. Despite this, there have been several efforts to model the epidemic for different countries as an early estimate of the pandemic size can be very useful to design key strategies to tackle it.
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