Estimating the Final Epidemic Size for COVID-19 Outbreak using Improved Epidemiological Models

Rajesh Ranjan

The data for the models have been taken from 'Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Data Stream' that combines World Health Organization (WHO) and CDC case data. Specifically, the time-series data from https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 till April 11, 2020 has been used for current modeling purposes. These data are separately available for all the global regions, as well as for states and counties in the US from date January 22, 2020. The time-series global data include total confirmed (C), recovered (R) and deceased (D) cases for all the affected countries. It is assumed that all the confirmed cases are sent to quarantine. Therefore, the number of quarantined Q(t) cases at any time are given by C(t) − R(t) − D(t). For the US, time histories of only confirmed (C) and deceased (D) cases are available for all the states and counties. In these cases, the fit in the SEIQRDP model is obtained using the data of quarantined plus recovered cases (Q(t) + R(t) = C(t) − D(t)).