Ranking Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions against Covid-19 Global Pandemic using Global Sensitivity Analysis - Effect on Number of Deaths

Arachchilage, Kalpana Hanthanan; Hussaini, Mohammed Yousuff

In this study, we use Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to rank four non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in a deterministic compartmental model that might control Covid-19 related deaths in the United States. The NPIs are social distancing, isolation of infected individuals, identifying asymptomatically infected individuals through testing, and the use of face masks. The model uses a fear-based behavioral model that leads unmasked susceptible individuals to wear masks. The model parameters are estimated from the reported deaths for the United States of America from March 1, 2020 to November 26, 2020. Two GSA tools, the Sobol’ sesntivity indices and Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient are used to obtain the rankings of the input parameters at different stages of the disease propagation. We found that social distancing and outward mask efficiency alone decreases the output uncertainty by 25-45%. Sobol’ second order indices show that the combined effect of social distancing with increased mask usage and identifying and isolating asymptomatically infected individuals decreases uncertainty an additional 10%.