Estimating the probability of New Zealand regions being free from COVID-19 using a stochastic SEIR model

Rafal Bogacz

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.20.20073304 doi: medRxiv preprint the time one has to observe no new cases to be sure that a disease has been eradicated [6] . Nevertheless according to the website of the Ministry of Health (address in the Methods), the fraction of cases due to community transmission (4%) is much lower than the number of cases due to the contact with known individual (54%) which suggests that the majority of infectious individuals is being identified in New Zealand. Second, the model assumed that once individuals become diagnosed, they are isolated, and no longer infect others. This assumption may also be not satisfied in practice. Third, the model assumes that there is no movement of individuals between DHB while some of the DHB (e.g. Auckland and Waitemata) include districts of the same city (e.g. Auckland), so the assumptions on travel of individuals between DHB could to be included to refine the model.