Author: Chakrit Pongkitivanichkul; Daris Samart; Takol Tangphati; Phanit Koomhin; Pimchanok Pimton; Punsiri Dam-O; Apirak Payaka; Phongpichit Channuie
Title: Estimating the size of COVID-19 epidemic outbreak Document date: 2020_3_31
ID: auzioqyz_15
Snippet: A clear example of countries beyond the inflection point is China where the outbreak was first reported. Another country where the outbreak has passed beyond the inflection point and the situation is now under control is Korea. The results of parameter fit for China and Korea are shown in Fig.2 . In the China and Korea cases, The reported data show that the spread have reached the end point of the epidemic. This is the reason in our RG-inspired l.....
Document: A clear example of countries beyond the inflection point is China where the outbreak was first reported. Another country where the outbreak has passed beyond the inflection point and the situation is now under control is Korea. The results of parameter fit for China and Korea are shown in Fig.2 . In the China and Korea cases, The reported data show that the spread have reached the end point of the epidemic. This is the reason in our RG-inspired logistic growth model when both n = 1 and n = 1 give very similar model parameters and very close prediction to each other. The value of root mean squared error (RMSE) from both models suggests that the RGinspired logistic model with n = 1 is slightly preferable.
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