Estimating excess 1- year mortality from COVID-19 according to underlying conditions and age in England: a rapid analysis using NHS health records in 3.8 million adults

Amitava Banerjee; Laura Pasea; Steve Harris; Arturo Gonzalez-Izquierdo; Ana Torralbo; Laura Shallcross; Mahdad Noursadeghi; Deenan Pillay; Christina Pagel; Wai Keong Wong; Claudia Langenberg; Bryan Williams; Spiros Denaxas; Harry Hemingway

Our objectives were: (i) to provide the research and policy community and public with parameters (prevalence, background pre-COVID- 19 1-year mortality risk by age and underlying conditions) to assist modelling; and (ii) to provide initial estimates of the excess COVID-19-related deaths over a 1 year period based on differing rates of infection. It is currently not known what the overall mortality impact of this emergency, which affects infected and non-infected patients will be. The relative excess in deaths in the winter compared to the summer months in the UK and many other countries is about 20%; our model in effect applies an additional all year round winter effect (i.e. relative risk of 1.2) (15-16). However, it is possible that the relative risk varies during the course of the pandemic, and at high levels of compromise in the workforce and health system, it is likely to be higher due to inability to provide timely care. Given concerns at the clinician and system levels, we therefore modelled an increased risk of mortality associated with COVID-19(RR 1.5 and 2.0).