Author: Chi Heem Wong; Kien Wei Siah; Andrew W Lo
Title: Estimating Probabilities of Success of Clinical Trials for Vaccines and Other Anti-Infective Therapeutics Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: fnrm6a79_19
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.09.20059600 doi: medRxiv preprint 8 Apr 2020 © 2020 by Wong, Siah, and Lo Page 6 of 25 All Rights Reserved From Figure 3a , we can see that the overall PoS for industry-sponsored vaccine development programs is 39.6% (standard error, or SE: 1.2%), which is substantially higher than the average overall PoS of 11.0% (SE: 0.2%) across all i.....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.09.20059600 doi: medRxiv preprint 8 Apr 2020 © 2020 by Wong, Siah, and Lo Page 6 of 25 All Rights Reserved From Figure 3a , we can see that the overall PoS for industry-sponsored vaccine development programs is 39.6% (standard error, or SE: 1.2%), which is substantially higher than the average overall PoS of 11.0% (SE: 0.2%) across all industry-sponsored drug development programs (see Table 2 2020), despite the fact that the latter computed their estimates using a different method (a "phase-by-phase" approach) and considered only lead indications. We estimate PoS12, PoS23, and PoS3A to be 82.5% (SE: 0.9%), 65.4% (SE: 1.3%), and 80.1% (SE: 1.4%), respectively.
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