A New, Simple Projection Model for COVID-19 Pandemic

Jian Lu

This projection model aims to achieve two major tasks of epidemic control: one is to assess the effectiveness of government intervention, the level of cooperation from the public and the efficiency of healthcare system; second is to track and give a decent prediction of the growth and number of infections. To eradicate a pandemic, both information is critical for policy makers to outline strategies and make adjustment to measures to curb the spread of infection, minimizing the social and economic impact to one's country and to the world. 4375 5057 5770 6497 7219 7912 8553 9117 9582 9927 10135 10237 10339 10443 10547 10652 10706 10759 10813 10867 10921 Rc = 1.25% 4384 5090 5846 6641 7461 8289 9106 9889 10616 11263 11810 12235 12522 12660 12787 12914 13044 13174 13306 13372 13439 13506 13574 13642 Rc = 1% 4394 5123 5922 6787 7710 8681 9688 10715 11744 12754 13723 14629 15448 16158 16740 17175 17450 17625 17801 17979 18159 18340 18432 18524 18617 18710 19033 19223 19415 19610 19708 19806 19905