Author: Patrick Bryant; Arne Elofsson
Title: Estimating the impact of mobility patterns on COVID-19 infection rates in 11 European countries Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: emejt26r_9
Snippet: When analyzing the number of deaths, the modelled parameter in the posterior distribution of the Bayesian model (see methods section), one can see that the estimated number of deaths and the actual number of deaths have a good correspondence (see the curves and histograms respectively in Figure 1 ). The positive news is that Austria, France, Italy and Spain all display sharp downward trends in this aspect. However, if the model is correct, Sweden.....
Document: When analyzing the number of deaths, the modelled parameter in the posterior distribution of the Bayesian model (see methods section), one can see that the estimated number of deaths and the actual number of deaths have a good correspondence (see the curves and histograms respectively in Figure 1 ). The positive news is that Austria, France, Italy and Spain all display sharp downward trends in this aspect. However, if the model is correct, Sweden will have somewhere between 200-500 deaths per day at the end of next week (April 17-19). The dates for the introduction of different NPIs are marked with vertical lines. As can be seen, the NPIs have very strong implications for the mobility patterns. The mobility data ranges from 2020-02-15 to 2020-03-29.
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