Estimating SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and epidemiological parameters with uncertainty from serological surveys

Daniel B Larremore; Bailey K Fosdick; Kate M Bubar; Sam Zhang; Stephen M Kissler; C. Jessica E. Metcalf; Caroline Buckee; Yonatan Grad

Given test outcomes, a posterior distribution was inferred using 1, 000 or more samples from the posterior distribution Eq. (1) using an accept-reject algorithm, and the 90% equal-tailed credible interval was recorded. Average posterior 90% CI widths were calculated using 250 technical replicates per pixel/point (Fig. 2) . Table S1 ). The posterior distribution Eq. (1) was then sampled 100 times using an accept-reject algorithm, and each sampled θ was used in the initial conditions of an SEIR simulation, described below. To isolate the effect of sample size alone, the outcomes of the n = 100 tests were scaled up tenfold to a total of n = 1000 tests and the above procedure was 13 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.