Estimating number of global importations of COVID-19 from Wuhan, risk of transmission outside mainland China and COVID-19 introduction index between countries outside mainland China

Haoyang Sun; Borame Lee Dickens; Mark Chen; Alex Richard Cook; Hannah Eleanor Clapham

The copyright holder for this preprint Table 2 : Countries or territories having a local outbreak risk greater than 50% in the main analysis (i.e. assuming immediate isolation of all the reported cases imported from Wuhan). In an alternative scenario, we assumed that each country or territory was able to isolate 95% of all the cases imported from Wuhan, and the risk of local outbreak was re-computed (shown in the last column). Figure 1 : Posterior median estimate of the number of COVID-19 cases imported from Wuhan, for each country or territory outside mainland China. For the countries having the top 10 highest ratios between the reported number of imported cases and the volume of passengers from Wuhan (used as the top reporting rate in our analysis), the reported case counts were shown instead. Figure 2 : Estimated probability that a local outbreak will occur and sustain for at least 3 generations following the importation from Wuhan ("local outbreak risk") for each country or territory outside mainland China: (A) Assuming immediate isolation of all the reported cases imported from Wuhan; (B) Assuming immediate isolation of 95% of all the imported cases from Wuhan occurs. . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.