Author: Haoyang Sun; Borame Lee Dickens; Mark Chen; Alex Richard Cook; Hannah Eleanor Clapham
Title: Estimating number of global importations of COVID-19 from Wuhan, risk of transmission outside mainland China and COVID-19 introduction index between countries outside mainland China Document date: 2020_2_20
ID: 2w3bx6p8_45
Snippet: In summary, we estimate a number of imported cases from Wuhan that were undetected. Given these importations, we estimate a high risk of onward transmission within a number of countries outside mainland China, particularly in those places where cases were not detected, as these undetected cases could not be isolated, and transmission truncated. Given our results of high risk of onward transmission we highlight the importance of wider testing to p.....
Document: In summary, we estimate a number of imported cases from Wuhan that were undetected. Given these importations, we estimate a high risk of onward transmission within a number of countries outside mainland China, particularly in those places where cases were not detected, as these undetected cases could not be isolated, and transmission truncated. Given our results of high risk of onward transmission we highlight the importance of wider testing to pick up community transmission as soon as possible after transmission occurs. We also highlight countries that become at increased risk of importation as transmission occurs outside China, and provide results for each country to assess the countries that pose their highest risk of importation.
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