Impact of State-Dependent Dispersal on Disease Prevalence

Gao, Daozhou; Lou, Yuan

Based on a susceptible-infected-susceptible patch model, we study the influence of dispersal on the disease prevalence of an individual patch and all patches at the endemic equilibrium. Specifically, we estimate the disease prevalence of each patch and obtain a weak order-preserving result that correlated the patch reproduction number with the patch disease prevalence. Then we assume that dispersal rates of the susceptible and infected populations are proportional and derive the overall disease prevalence, or equivalently, the total infection size at no dispersal or infinite dispersal as well as the right derivative of the total infection size at no dispersal. Furthermore, for the two-patch submodel, two complete classifications of the model parameter space are given: one addressing when dispersal leads to higher or lower overall disease prevalence than no dispersal, and the other concerning how the overall disease prevalence varies with dispersal rate. Numerical simulations are performed to further investigate the effect of movement on disease prevalence.