COVID-19 superspreading in cities versus the countryside

Eilersen, A.; Sneppen, K.

So far, the COVID-19 pandemic has been characterised by an initial rapid rise in new cases followed by a peak and a more erratic behaviour that varies between regions. This is not easy to reproduce with traditional SIR models, which predict a more symmetric epidemic. Here, we argue that superspreaders and population heterogeneity are the core factors explaining this discrepancy. We do so through an agent-based lattice model of a disease spreading in a heterogeneous population.We predict that an epidemic driven by superspreaders will spread rapidly in cities, but not in the countryside where the sparse population limits the maximal number of secondary infections. This suggests that mitigation strategies should include restrictions on venues where people meet a largenumber of strangers. Furthermore, mitigating the epidemic in cities and in the countryside may require different levels of restrictions.