Estimating Spot Prevalence of COVID-19 from Daily Death Data in Italy

Ali Raheem

This disease appears to have a case fatality rate of approximated 2-15%. However there have been a wide variety in reported proportion of cases that are asymptomatic or only show mild non-specific symptoms. Making it difficult to estimate the number of cases of COVID-19 without widespread testing which has not yet been implemented in any country. While frequently case fatality rate has been calculated by comparing spot dates in 24 hours to spot confirmed cases in the same 24 hours, this is inaccurate (1) . Accurately estimating the prevalence of COVID-19 will allow organisations to make better informed decisions to control COVID-19. The majority of testing is currently being done with Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) methodology which can be done in real-time at some labs, confirmation may use Nucleic Acid Amplification Test (NAAT) methodology (2) . As infections outstrip testing capacity we risk infectious casing slipping through our fingers, without confirmation it's possible some quarantine subjects will be less willing to self-isolate increasing the likelihood of further spread.