Author: Deqiang Li; Zhicheng Liu; Qinghe Liu; Zefei Gao; Junkai Zhu; Junyan Yang; Qiao Wang
Title: Estimating the Efficacy of Traffic Blockage and Quarantine for the Epidemic Caused by 2019-nCoV (COVID-19) Document date: 2020_2_17
ID: 6f6t558e_58
Snippet: ‫ݖ‬ is the nth real data value, and n=1,2,…,N , ‫ݖ‬ is the nth predicted value, based on the model. We fitted the confirmed data from Jan.12 to Feb. 7 to get the optimal number of potential suceptibles by minimizing the loss value. The loss value is small enough to make the estimated results fitting the real data well. The parameters in the Flow-SEIR model can also be estimated in the same way......
Document: ‫ݖ‬ is the nth real data value, and n=1,2,…,N , ‫ݖ‬ is the nth predicted value, based on the model. We fitted the confirmed data from Jan.12 to Feb. 7 to get the optimal number of potential suceptibles by minimizing the loss value. The loss value is small enough to make the estimated results fitting the real data well. The parameters in the Flow-SEIR model can also be estimated in the same way.
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