Author: Rajesh Ranjan
Title: Estimating the Final Epidemic Size for COVID-19 Outbreak using Improved Epidemiological Models Document date: 2020_4_16
ID: emyuny1a_2
Snippet: control the spread. During this period, the rest of the world had a very few officially confirmed cases. From mid of February till March 10, a slow exponential growth corresponds to COVID-19 cases spreading slowly in the rest of the world. During this period, the countries most affected by the epidemic are South Korea, Iran, Italy, etc. A third rapid exponential growth begins around March 11, when the epidemic spreads to the United States and oth.....
Document: control the spread. During this period, the rest of the world had a very few officially confirmed cases. From mid of February till March 10, a slow exponential growth corresponds to COVID-19 cases spreading slowly in the rest of the world. During this period, the countries most affected by the epidemic are South Korea, Iran, Italy, etc. A third rapid exponential growth begins around March 11, when the epidemic spreads to the United States and other European countries such as Spain, France, Germany and the UK. Countries like India exhibit a very slow growth during the entire period, which may correspond to early suspension of international flights and strict social distancing measures. Fig. 1(a) shows the number of worldwide deaths due to this epidemic, which also shows very similar distribution as the infected cases as expected. The death percentage is about 6% of the total infections. However, this proportion is different for different geographical regions and depends on the demography of population. In order to further characterize the spread of COVID-19 in different regions, we define two ratios:
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